Forecasting Intermittent Demand for Spare Parts
نویسنده
چکیده
Croston (1972) [2] presented an idea and method to separate ordinary exponential smoothing in two parts;In the time between demand, or withdrawals, and demand size. The idea with the modification in Levén and Segerstedt (2004) [3] is that time between demand and demand size is not independent. But this modification has shown poor results. Therefore Wallström and Segerstedt (2010) [8] suggest another modification, “forward coverage”. By applying moving average of past two months demands to “forward Coverage” (Wallström and Segerstedt (2010)) [8] method, shows that the new one produces better forecast, if the time between demands and demanded quantity are not independent. The different techniques are compared Mean Squared Error (MSE). Keyword: Croston’s Method; forward coverage; irregular demand; spare part; service parts inventory.
منابع مشابه
Framework for Spare Inventory Management
Spare parts inventory management is one of the major areas of inventory research. Analysis of recent literature showed that an approach integrating spare parts classification, demand forecasting, and stock control policies is essential; however, adapting this integrated approach is limited. This work presents an integrated framework for spare part inventory management and an Excel based applica...
متن کاملEvaluation of forecasting methods for intermittent parts demand in the field of aviation: a predictive model
Owing to the sporadic nature of demand for aircraft maintenance repair parts, airline operators perceive dif%culties in forecasting and are still looking for superior forecasting methods. This paper deals with techniques applicable to predicting spare parts demand for airline 4eets. The experimental results of 13 forecasting methods, including those used by aviation companies, are examined and ...
متن کاملمدل پیشبینی مصرف قطعات یدکی با درنظرگرفتن قابلیت اطمینان، محیط عملیاتی و برهمکنش شکست قطعات
Product support and after sales services are among the important areas which have attracted the attention of managers and decision makers, especially in the field of supply chain and logistics management. Supplying the spare parts of products to guarantee the desired operation of product during its life time is in the focus of attention of logistics and supply chain managers. What makes the d...
متن کاملA Systematic Approach to Internal Spare Parts Management by Paul
Internal spare parts management is a universal issue faced by all manufacturers, and involves decision-making and planning across a highly complex and heterogeneous group of thousands of items. Spare parts exhibit intermittent demand and a variety of prices, lead times, and potential downtime costs that pose challenges for planning and control. Managers can facilitate spare parts decision-makin...
متن کاملAnother look at estimators for intermittent demand
In this paper we focus on forecasting for intermittent demand data. We propose a new aggregation framework for intermittent demand forecasting that performs aggregation over the demand volumes, in contrast to the standard framework that employs temporal (over time) aggregation. To achieve this we construct a transformed time series, the inverse intermittent demand series. The new algorithm is e...
متن کامل